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Europatipset 2026-10-21, draw 2618
Closes Wed 21 Oct 20:59, turnover 3,973,482 kr. Experts: Rekat och klart, Mattias Liss.
Results
8 of 13 matches played
| Safe | Balanced | Value | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results right so far | 7 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Cost | 972 kr | 972 kr | 972 kr | 432 kr |
How the sources did
| Source | Matches | Chance given | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 8 | 56% | 0.732 | 6 of 8 |
| People | 8 | 57% | 0.786 | 6 of 8 |
| Forebet | 8 | 40% | 0.967 | 6 of 8 |
| Prediction | 8 | 55% | 0.758 | 6 of 8 |
Chance given is the average chance the source gave what happened; log loss punishes confident misses hard, and lower is better. A few matches say little: compare over many coupons.
Coupon
| Match | Result | Safe | Balanced | Value | Played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Bayern München - Arsenal | 1X2 24% | 1X2 100% ✓ | 1X2 44% ✗ | 1X2 76% ✗ | 1X2 76% ✗ |
| 2. Aston Villa - Viking | 1X2 77% | 1X2 77% ✓ | 1X2 77% ✓ | 1X2 77% ✓ | 1X2 77% ✓ |
| 3. Inter - Sjakhtar Donetsk | 1X2 76% | 1X2 76% ✓ | 1X2 76% ✓ | 1X2 76% ✓ | 1X2 76% ✓ |
| 4. Real Madrid - RB Leipzig | 1X2 74% | 1X2 74% ✓ | 1X2 100% ✓ | 1X2 26% ✗ | 1X2 74% ✓ |
| 5. Real Betis - Feyenoord | 1X2 60% | 1X2 60% ✓ | 1X2 79% ✓ | 1X2 60% ✓ | 1X2 60% ✓ |
| 6. Club Brügge - Lens | 1X2 51% | 1X2 100% ✓ | 1X2 100% ✓ | 1X2 100% ✓ | 1X2 77% ✓ |
| 7. Sporting Lissabon - LASK Linz | 1X2 11% | 1X2 74% ✗ | 1X2 74% ✗ | 1X2 11% ✓ | 1X2 74% ✗ |
| 8. Reading - Leyton Orient | 1X2 64% | 1X2 64% ✓ | 1X2 64% ✓ | 1X2 64% ✓ | 1X2 64% ✓ |
| 9. Iberia 1999 - Mjällby AIF | 1X2 100% | 1X2 75% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | |
| 10. Juventus - Rennes | 1X2 82% | 1X2 58% | 1X2 58% | 1X2 82% | |
| 11. Lech Poznan - Sunderland | 1X2 79% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 79% | |
| 12. Sturm Graz - Marseille | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | |
| 13. Röda stjärnan - FC Köpenhamn | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% | 1X2 100% |
1. Bayern München - Arsenal
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 2.38 | 3.90 | 2.90 | |
| Start odds | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.40 | |
| From odds | 41% | 25% | 34% | |
| People | 43% | 28% | 29% | |
| Forebet | 37% | 40% | 23% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 0/2 | 1/2 | |
| Prediction | 44% | 24% | 32% | |
| Value | 1.02 | 0.86 | 1.11 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 24% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 44% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
- Bayern München
- WWDDW ← latest 4.00 goals/match
- Arsenal
- WLWWW ← latest 2.00 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 1 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins
- Forebet tip
- X Draw (2 - 2), 3.31 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1Mattias Liss 12
- Prediction from
- odds 84%, experts 8%, Forebet 8%
The odds moved a lot since the start (-4.2 / -0.9 / +5.1 points), so experts and Forebet count half
2. Aston Villa - Viking
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.25 | 7.50 | 11.50 | |
| Start odds | 1.28 | 6.50 | 12.00 | |
| From odds | 78% | 13% | 9% | |
| People | 80% | 14% | 6% | |
| Forebet | 42% | 34% | 24% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 0/2 | 0/2 | |
| Prediction | 77% | 14% | 9% | |
| Value | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.57 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 77% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 77% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 77% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 77% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 77% |
- Aston Villa
- WWDWW ← latest 3.00 goals/match
- Viking
- WWWDW ← latest 2.80 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- No earlier meetings
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (3 - 1), 3.41 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1Mattias Liss 1
- Prediction from
- odds 68%, experts 17%, Forebet 15%
3. Inter - Sjakhtar Donetsk
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.24 | 7.50 | 12.50 | |
| Start odds | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 | |
| From odds | 79% | 13% | 8% | |
| People | 82% | 13% | 5% | |
| Forebet | 45% | 29% | 26% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | |
| Prediction | 76% | 14% | 10% | |
| Value | 0.92 | 1.11 | 1.98 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 76% |
- Inter
- DWWLW ← latest 2.60 goals/match
- Sjakhtar Donetsk
- WWWWW ← latest 2.80 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 2 home wins, 3 draws, 0 away wins
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (3 - 1), 2.63 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1Mattias Liss 1X2
- Prediction from
- odds 77%, experts 8%, Forebet 15%
1 expert hedged fully (1X2): hard to call, and left out of the prediction
4. Real Madrid - RB Leipzig
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.25 | 8.00 | 11.00 | |
| Start odds | 1.28 | 7.00 | 10.50 | |
| From odds | 79% | 12% | 9% | |
| People | 84% | 11% | 5% | |
| Forebet | 47% | 35% | 18% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | |
| Prediction | 74% | 16% | 10% | |
| Value | 0.88 | 1.43 | 2.06 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 74% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 74% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 26% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 74% |
- Real Madrid
- WLWWW ← latest 2.60 goals/match
- RB Leipzig
- WLWWL ← latest 2.60 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 2 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (4 - 1), 2.80 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1X2Mattias Liss 1X2
- Prediction from
- odds 85%, experts 0%, Forebet 15%
2 experts hedged fully (1X2): hard to call, and left out of the prediction
5. Real Betis - Feyenoord
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.67 | 4.60 | 4.90 | |
| Start odds | 1.50 | 5.10 | 6.25 | |
| From odds | 59% | 21% | 20% | |
| People | 63% | 22% | 15% | |
| Forebet | 58% | 24% | 18% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | |
| Prediction | 60% | 21% | 19% | |
| Value | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.27 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 60% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 60% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 79% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 60% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 60% |
- Real Betis
- WDWWL ← latest 2.40 goals/match
- Feyenoord
- WWWWW ← latest 4.20 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (2 - 1), 3.75 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1X2Mattias Liss 1
- Prediction from
- odds 88%, experts 4%, Forebet 8%
The odds moved a lot since the start (-6.5 / +2.1 / +4.4 points), so experts and Forebet count half
1 expert hedged fully (1X2): hard to call, and left out of the prediction
6. Club Brügge - Lens
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.78 | 4.40 | 4.30 | |
| Start odds | 2.07 | 4.00 | 3.45 | |
| From odds | 55% | 22% | 23% | |
| People | 55% | 24% | 21% | |
| Forebet | 40% | 34% | 26% | |
| Experts | 1/2 | 1/2 | 2/2 | |
| Prediction | 51% | 23% | 25% | |
| Value | 0.93 | 0.97 | 1.20 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 51% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 77% |
- Club Brügge
- WWWWW ← latest 3.00 goals/match
- Lens
- LWWLW ← latest 1.60 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- No earlier meetings
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (2 - 1), 3.18 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 12Mattias Liss X2
- Prediction from
- odds 84%, experts 8%, Forebet 8%
The odds moved a lot since the start (+7.8 / -2.2 / -5.6 points), so experts and Forebet count half
Upset chance: 2 (Lens), predicted 25% but played by 21%
7. Sporting Lissabon - LASK Linz
Champions League (Internationell), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.30 | 6.25 | 8.50 | |
| Start odds | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 | |
| From odds | 73% | 15% | 11% | |
| People | 83% | 11% | 6% | |
| Forebet | 54% | 22% | 24% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 0/2 | 0/2 | |
| Prediction | 74% | 15% | 11% | |
| Value | 0.89 | 1.32 | 1.88 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 11% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 74% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 74% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 11% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 74% |
- Sporting Lissabon
- WDDWW ← latest 2.20 goals/match
- LASK Linz
- DWLLW ← latest 2.40 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 1 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (3 - 0), 3.04 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1Mattias Liss 1
- Prediction from
- odds 84%, experts 8%, Forebet 8%
The odds moved a lot since the start (-5.1 / +1.4 / +3.7 points), so experts and Forebet count half
8. Reading - Leyton Orient
League One (England), Wed 21:00
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.46 | 4.50 | 6.40 | |
| Start odds | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.50 | |
| From odds | 64% | 21% | 15% | |
| People | 58% | 26% | 16% | |
| Forebet | 22% | 36% | 42% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 0/2 | 0/2 | |
| Prediction | 64% | 20% | 16% | |
| Value | 1.11 | 0.78 | 0.97 | |
| Result | 1 | X | 2 | 64% |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 64% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 64% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 64% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 64% |
- Reading
- DDWLL ← latest 1.60 goals/match
- Leyton Orient
- LWLDW ← latest 0.80 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 1 home wins, 1 draws, 3 away wins
- Forebet tip
- 2 Away win (0 - 1), 1.58 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1Mattias Liss 1
- Prediction from
- odds 84%, experts 8%, Forebet 8%
The odds moved a lot since the start (+3.8 / -1.5 / -2.4 points), so experts and Forebet count half
9. Iberia 1999 - Mjällby AIF
Conference League (Internationell), Thu 18:45
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.15 | |
| Start odds | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.08 | |
| From odds | 29% | 28% | 44% | |
| People | 28% | 28% | 44% | |
| Forebet | 36% | 31% | 33% | |
| Experts | 0/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | |
| Prediction | 25% | 32% | 43% | |
| Value | 0.89 | 1.14 | 0.98 | |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 75% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
- Iberia 1999
- WLWLW ← latest 1.40 goals/match
- Mjällby AIF
- LLDWL ← latest 0.60 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- No earlier meetings
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (1 - 0), 2.44 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart X2Mattias Liss X2
- Prediction from
- odds 68%, experts 17%, Forebet 15%
10. Juventus - Rennes
Europa League (Internationell), Thu 18:45
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.58 | 4.40 | 6.10 | |
| Start odds | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.60 | |
| From odds | 62% | 22% | 16% | |
| People | 61% | 23% | 16% | |
| Forebet | 36% | 38% | 26% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | |
| Prediction | 58% | 25% | 18% | |
| Value | 0.95 | 1.07 | 1.09 | |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 82% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 58% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 58% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 82% |
- Juventus
- WLDWL ← latest 1.00 goals/match
- Rennes
- LLWWL ← latest 1.80 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- No earlier meetings
- Forebet tip
- X Draw (2 - 2), 2.56 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1X2Mattias Liss 1X2
- Prediction from
- odds 85%, experts 0%, Forebet 15%
2 experts hedged fully (1X2): hard to call, and left out of the prediction
11. Lech Poznan - Sunderland
Europa League (Internationell), Thu 18:45
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 5.30 | 4.25 | 1.67 | |
| Start odds | 5.20 | 4.10 | 1.67 | |
| From odds | 18% | 23% | 59% | |
| People | 18% | 23% | 59% | |
| Forebet | 37% | 28% | 35% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | |
| Prediction | 21% | 24% | 55% | |
| Value | 1.18 | 1.03 | 0.93 | |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 79% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 79% |
- Lech Poznan
- WDWLW ← latest 3.40 goals/match
- Sunderland
- WLLWL ← latest 1.20 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- No earlier meetings
- Forebet tip
- 1 Home win (4 - 1), 3.52 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1X2Mattias Liss 1X2
- Prediction from
- odds 85%, experts 0%, Forebet 15%
2 experts hedged fully (1X2): hard to call, and left out of the prediction
12. Sturm Graz - Marseille
Europa League (Internationell), Thu 18:45
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 3.70 | 3.70 | 2.02 | |
| Start odds | 3.70 | 3.70 | 2.02 | |
| From odds | 26% | 26% | 48% | |
| People | 26% | 25% | 49% | |
| Forebet | 36% | 27% | 37% | |
| Experts | 1/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | |
| Prediction | 27% | 26% | 47% | |
| Value | 1.05 | 1.04 | 0.95 | |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
- Sturm Graz
- LWWLW ← latest 2.20 goals/match
- Marseille
- LLWLW ← latest 1.80 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- No earlier meetings
- Forebet tip
- 2 Away win (0 - 1), 2.39 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1XMattias Liss 2
- Prediction from
- odds 68%, experts 17%, Forebet 15%
The odds are exactly the start odds: were they ever updated?
13. Röda stjärnan - FC Köpenhamn
Conference League (Internationell), Thu 18:45
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.05 | |
| Start odds | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.88 | |
| From odds | 41% | 27% | 32% | |
| People | 46% | 27% | 27% | |
| Forebet | 21% | 46% | 33% | |
| Experts | 2/2 | 2/2 | 1/2 | |
| Prediction | 39% | 32% | 29% | |
| Value | 0.84 | 1.19 | 1.09 | |
| Safe | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Balanced | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Value | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
| Played | 1 | X | 2 | 100% |
- Röda stjärnan
- WWWLW ← latest 3.00 goals/match
- FC Köpenhamn
- WLLWD ← latest 1.20 goals/match
- Head-to-head
- 0 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins
- Forebet tip
- X Draw (2 - 2), 2.54 goals
- Expert tips
- Rekat och klart 1X2Mattias Liss 1X
- Prediction from
- odds 77%, experts 8%, Forebet 15%
1 expert hedged fully (1X2): hard to call, and left out of the prediction
Systems
| Safe | Balanced | Value | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rows | 972 | 972 | 972 | 432 |
| 13 right | 8.0% | 4.2% | 0.29% | 4.7% |
| 12+ right | 32% | 21% | 4.2% | 22% |
| 11+ right | 64% | 51% | 21% | 49% |
| 10+ right | 86% | 78% | 50% | 75% |
| Cost | 972 kr | 972 kr | 972 kr | 432 kr |
| Average win when it pays | ||||
| 13 right | 6,061 kr | 22,701 kr | 494,253 kr | 5,100 kr |
| 12 right | 340 kr | 673 kr | 4,033 kr | 251 kr |
| 11 right | 160 kr | 299 kr | 695 kr | 116 kr |
| 10 right | 219 kr | 380 kr | 651 kr | 145 kr |
| Expected winnings, chance × win | ||||
| 13 right | 486 kr | 945 kr | 1,429 kr | 238 kr |
| 12 right | 107 kr | 140 kr | 170 kr | 53 kr |
| 11 right | 58 kr | 81 kr | 89 kr | 27 kr |
| 10 right | 69 kr | 99 kr | 111 kr | 32 kr |
| In all | 720 kr | 1,264 kr | 1,799 kr | 349 kr |
| Per kr, 13 right | 0.50 kr | 0.97 kr | 1.47 kr | 0.55 kr |
| Per kr, all prizes | 0.74 kr | 1.30 kr | 1.85 kr | 0.81 kr |
Safe has the best chance of 13 right. Value has the highest expected
13-right payout: it plays the signs the public under-plays, which pay well when they come in, even
long shots. Balanced is in between: the highest expected payout while keeping at least
half of Safe's chance of 13 right, so it backs the upsets that are realistic. Systems you played, in
played.txt on the files page, are shown after them. A winning
row shares each prize pool with the public's rows that have as many right; a prize under 15 kr a row
pays nothing. The average win is what a level pays all your rows together in the rounds it pays
anything; the expected winnings weigh that by how likely it is, so they look small next to the
win itself. Above 1 kr per kr means the system is expected to win more than it costs, if the
prediction is right.
The prize pools come from a turnover of 3,973,482 kr, so far: it grows until the coupon closes, which makes rare rows look better than they are, so enter the expected turnover at close. The jackpot makes the 13-right pool at least 2,500,000 kr. 13-right pool: 2,500,000 kr.